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Feature
India is about to become the world’s biggest country, but there's something else going on
India will overtake China as the most populous nation in 2023, but women there are having fewer children, in part due to the “magic contraceptive” of education.
Published 23 April 2023 5:59pm
By Aaron Fernandes
Source: SBS News
Image: Upma Saxena and her two daughters. (SBS News / Aaron Fernandes)
Upma Saxena grew up in a traditional household. Her parents arranged for her to be married when she was 17 and soon after she gave birth to two daughters.
“From my childhood until I got married, I lived with my grandparents. When my grandfather passed away, I came back to my parents, but I was married away at an early age, I was still in school,” she says.
Today, Upma lives with her daughters Kavia, 12, and Navia, nine, in a humble flat in Noida on the eastern fringe of India’s capital, New Delhi. The entire flat is a single-room space where the bed is only a metre or two from the kitchen sink. Upma’s daughters have their school books out on the bed, papers scrawled with handwritten notes in Hindi.
Upma’s life goal is to grow her own small business and deliver the best education possible for her daughters. With that in mind, she and her husband decided not to have any more children.
The family's flat is a single-room space with the bed less than two metres from the kitchen sink. Source: SBS News / Aaron Fernandes
Upma’s decision to stop at two marks a change taking place across the country.
The United Nations confirmed this week that India will overtake China to become the world's most populous nation in 2023, with India expected to be home to 1.429 billion people by 1 July, three million ahead of China with 1.426 billion.
Source: SBS News
China’s population has dipped below India’s largely due to Beijing’s inability to reverse the impacts of its one-child policy.
“Women are not lights you can switch on and switch off and say, ‘now you have more children and now you don't have more children,’” said India Population Foundation’s executive director Poonam Mutreja.
“So, India has to deal with population stability in a stable way.”
Women are not lights you can switch on and switch off and say, 'now you have more children and now you don't.'- Poonam Mutreja, India Population Foundation
But while India’s population has grown by more than one billion people since 1950, overall, population growth is slowing.
Analysis of data from the United Nations and other sources by the Pew Research Centre, shows today, the average woman in India will have two children in her lifetime, down from 3.4 in 1992 and 5.9 in 1950. On average, women in rural areas have 2.1 children, while women in urban areas have 1.6 children, both lower than they were 20 years ago.
Source: SBS News
“As women get more educated and literacy rates go up, fertility rates go down. So a woman that completes grade 12 is likely to have two or less than two children, while a woman who studied only in primary school or had no education is likely to have three or more children,” she says.
Through a local NGO that upskills women for the workforce, Upma completed training in industrial sewing and now runs her own business providing contracting services to clothing exporters. She earns her own money and is saving for her daughters’ futures.
“People shouldn’t think that just because they’re girls that they aren’t going to be educated. I think if we can save more money, I can give them a better education at a better school,” she says.
Upma trained in industrial sewing and now runs her own business. Source: SBS News / Aaron Fernandes
“Times have changed now; women themselves want to earn and be independent. They don’t want four to five children, they are only one to two, but they want to give them proper education, proper health. They are breaking their barriers, breaking family pressure,” she says.
Times have changed now; women themselves want to earn and be independent.- Priyanka Tiwari, Niveda Foundation
But while India’s population growth overall has slowed, the country’s fertility rate remains higher than China (1.2) and the US (1.6).
India has had its own experiments with coercive population control, most notably a mass compulsory sterilisation program during the 1970s. Even today, female sterilisation - which involves surgery - remains the most popular method of contraception in India despite the associated health risks according to its 2019-2021 National Family Health Survey.
Only 9.5 per cent of men use condoms, the survey found, and only 5.1 per cent of women take the contraceptive pill. The use of female sterilisation has risen slightly to 37.9 per cent.
India’s government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had little to say about the country reaching the population milestone, believed by some to be about not wanting to discuss the huge tasks that come with managing such a large country.
In New Delhi though, 2023 is being described though as the ‘India moment’. India hosts the G20 in September at a time when governments around the world are trying to build closer ties.
Importantly, 40 per cent of people in India are aged 25 and under. A massive working-age population and low labour costs could see India emerge as a global manufacturing powerhouse at a time when nations around the world are seeking to reduce their reliance on China.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an election rally last year. Source: Getty / Ritesh Shukla
“You see a lot of new businesses and specialist start-ups are coming up in India and a lot of investment from the rest of the world,” says 22-year-old accountant Mohit.
“With this comes a lot of job opportunities. I believe that India’s youth are now looking at businesses instead of jobs. Starting new businesses will create more job opportunities.”
Last year, India displaced its former colonial power Britain to take fifth place in the global GDP rankings and is now the world's fastest-growing major economy.
“It is a major economy,” says 22-year-old financial analyst Itika. “It's going to be one of the best in the world, so there’s going to be a boost in the financial sector as well.”
“Perhaps in the short term, I will look for opportunities abroad. But in the long term, India might be a better option for me.”
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited India last month. Source: Getty / Sondeep Shankar
The country faces huge issues of uncontrolled urbanisation, poverty and internal migration.
Ms Mutreja warns that unless enough jobs are created and there are workers equipped with the skills for them, India’s large, young population could become a liability.
“India has to ensure that we plan for our old age and our ageing population. We have no social security, nor do we have a health system that can deal with the geriatric healthcare in the public health system,” she says.
“Up-skilling is something India will need to plan for if we are to take advantage of this large, young population. Otherwise, the demographic dividend will become a disaster.
“And the window of opportunity is close to 25 to 30 years. It's not going to exist all its life.”
