As Victoria becomes the first state or region selected to host the Commonwealth Games, a British monarchy expert says the shape of the Commonwealth will shift as more nations become a republic.
The multi-sport event for Commonwealth nations will be held across the state in four years' time, Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed on Tuesday.
Regional Victoria will take centre stage, with Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and Gippsland each hosting their own athlete's village and sport programs.
Shepparton is also slated to hold events, while the opening ceremony is locked in for the 100,000-seat Melbourne Cricket Ground.
"It will be the greatest spotlight, the greatest showcase of all that we have to offer," Mr Andrews told reporters in Ballarat.
(L-R) Victorian Minister for Tourism, Sport and Major Events Martin Pakula, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, President of the Commonwealth Games Federation Dame Louise Martin, Minister for Regional Development Mary-Anne-Thomas and MP Michaela Settle pose with athletes and children at Mars Stadium in Ballarat, 12 April, 2022. Source: AAP / CON CHRONIS
British monarchy expert and University of Sydney historian Dr Cindy McCreery said the announcement is a "very logical decision" and one that would be broadly welcomed around the world.
It comes amid growing scrutiny of the British empire's colonial ties following .
What is the Commonwealth?
Dr McCreery described the Commonwealth as a voluntary organisation of currently 54 nations - most, though not all, which are former colonies of Britain's empire.
She said the majority of nations are republics with a president rather than the British monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, as head of state.
But there are still 15 Commonwealth realms - countries which have the Queen as its monarch - including Australia, Canada and New Zealand, along with smaller nations in the Pacific and the Caribbean.
By 2026, Dr McCreery predicts the Commonwealth will shift in "shape", but not size.
"I don't think the Commonwealth is going to shrink between now and the Commonwealth Games in 2026. I think we'll still have roughly 54 nations — in fact, we might even get a few nations joining, because that is possible," she said.
"But what we'll see is that the shape within the Commonwealth, and the proportion of nations which are republics as opposed to Commonwealth realms, will shift."
Last month, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge made a week-long tour of the Caribbean that was marked by protests over the British empire, calls for reparations payments by Britain and an apology for slavery.
William, second in line to the British throne, had travelled to Belize, Jamaica and the Bahamas with his wife Kate to mark Queen Elizabeth's 70 years as monarch. But it came as some countries consider cutting ties with the British monarchy and after Barbados dropped the Queen as head of state to become a republic.
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness told the royal couple the former British colony intends to become fully independent of Britain.
This would make it only the second Caribbean island to cut relations with the Queen, .
Dr McCreery said the visit was widely criticised for being "ill-thought out, ill-planned and ... blind to those greater concerns".
"And I think there is definitely reason for that," she said.
"But on the other hand, I think it probably even took people in those countries by surprise, just how vigorous that protest and concern was."
She said the response to the tour reflects a recent escalation in public opinion in nations such as Jamaica and throughout the Commonwealth, which is "really leading to an acceleration in the demand for becoming a republic".
But Dr McCreery said this does not in itself suggest a rejection of the Commonwealth or its values.
In a statement released at the end of the tour, Prince William said it "has brought into even sharper focus questions about the past and the future".
"In Belize, Jamaica and the Bahamas, that future is for the people to decide upon."
Prince William said he and his wife wished to serve.
"For us, that's not telling people what to do. It is about serving and supporting them in whatever way they think best, by using the platform we are lucky to have," he said.
Rachel Bailes, spokesperson for the Australian Monarchist League, said there were many layers to the royal couple's engagement in the Caribbean.
"Given the history of slavery and race relations in the communities they were touring, I think the Duke and Duchess showed a significant level of openness, and a yearning for healing, and for meeting people exactly where they were," she said.
"I think that William and Catherine are extremely alive to those notions. And I think Her Majesty the Queen, especially when Commonwealth nations in decades past have decided to become republics, has never sought to stand in their way."
Dr McCreery said the reception of the royal family can vary, noting Princess Anne's recent visit to Sydney as part of her tour of Australia and Papua New Guinea where she was "broadly welcomed".
"It's not as simple as saying the royals are no longer welcome. It's not as simple as saying that people in and around the Commonwealth all want to become republics. I think it's a more complex and nuanced response," she said.
Where does this leave Australia?
Dr McCreery said the current trajectory may leave Australia as one of just a handful of Commonwealth realms by 2026, "with almost every other nation by then, potentially, a republic".
But there have long been similar calls in Australia, with The Australian Republic Movement (ARM) to replace the British monarch earlier this year.
The model was developed across a two-year period, with more than 10,000 Australians consulted through surveys, polls and meetings. At the time, the chair of the Australian Monarchist League , saying the current system was a "proven one that works".
In February, the ARM called for an "investment in Australians", with polling research from last December indicating 36 per cent of Australians knew Queen Elizabeth II was Australia's head of state.
“Australians deserve to have a head of state who is chosen by them and who can put the interests of Australians first," ARM national director Sandy Biar said.
SBS News has contacted the ARM for comment.
Dr McCreery said while there has certainly been an "escalation" in the campaign for a republic, some Australians appear to have been "left out of this process".
"I would say at the moment, it's still a little bit uncertain where Australia will go.
"The other uncertainty is the Queen herself. And I think that what we've seen recently is that despite ill health, despite the impact of advancing age, the Queen is signalling that she wants to keep going as much as her health can allow."
She is the head of the Commonwealth and while the role is not hereditary, it will pass to William's father and heir to the throne, Prince Charles.
Ms Bailes said the Australian Monarchist League remains confident that in 2026, the Queen or Prince Charles will be serving as sovereign of Australia.
"Even if, for whatever reason, Australia did become a republic in the next four years, obviously, the Commonwealth Games would proceed.
"It's important to recognise that our relationship to the Commonwealth and as a Commonwealth nation is separate to the question of constitutional monarchy, but we remain extremely confident that Australia will be a constitutional monarchy in 2026."
The Games last came to Victoria in 2006, when Melbourne played host. It is the sixth time the event has been held in Australia, most recently on the Gold Coast in 2018.
The costs of hosting the Games will be revealed in the upcoming state budget, due to be released on 3 May.
With AAP, Reuters.
