Warmer-than-usual temperatures and dry conditions are expected to last for the rest of winter with a possible El Nino weather pattern developing in spring, the Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate outlook says.
Northern and eastern parts of mainland Australia are likely to be drier than average between July and September, while temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average everywhere except the tropical north.
A higher-than-average pressure system is driving the weather patterns, meaning weaker westerlies and fewer cold fronts will be extending in southern parts of Australia.
The bureau's senior hydrologist Dr Paul Feikema says its latest climate modelling and a recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased the chances of an El Nino developing in the spring.
"The chance of El Nino developing in spring has increased to 50 per cent, around double the normal likelihood of an event," he said on Thursday.
"When El Nino occurs during spring, eastern Australia typically experiences lower rainfall than usual and days are typically warmer than average in the south."
The El Nino that spread from 2015 into 2016 was one of the three strongest on record, with temperatures nearly 1C above average.
Dr Feikema said while parts of Australia experienced good rainfalls in June, some key agricultural areas recorded their driest January-June on record.
By contrast, five cold fronts in five days brought snow to alpine regions in the south.
Most of the country recorded warmer-than-average temperatures during June following on from heatwave conditions last summer.
Many areas of central and south-eastern Australia also recorded their hottest ever January-June period.
