Why naming Iran over foreign interference may be a 'low cost' way to warn China

Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil has outed an Iranian foreign interference operation. One analyst says she might have other countries in mind.

A woman wearing a pale yellow jacket

Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil said "we are looking at all options at the moment" amid calls for repatriation flights. Source: AAP / Dean Lewins

Key Points
  • Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil revealed ASIO recently foiled a foreign interference operation by the Iranian regime.
  • Ms O'Neil said countries had tried to "collect sensitive personal information of individuals seen as dissidents by the foreign government due to their activism".
  • Spy agencies will be tasked with designing programs for communities most at-risk of being targeted for foreign interference.
Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil choosing to “name and shame” Iran for foreign interference may be a "low cost" way of warning other countries engaging in espionage, an expert says.

In a major speech to the ANU's National Security College on Tuesday, Ms O'Neil described foreign, pledging to out perpetrators when in the national interest.

She revealed ASIO had disrupted an Iranian government operation on Australia soil, targeting an Australian-Iranian critic of the regime in Tehran, which has s.
People at a rally holding flags
Protesters at Sydney's Bicentennial Park during a rally calling for global solidarity for the citizens of Iran in November 2022. Source: AAP / Paul Braven
The plot reportedly involved individuals monitoring the home of the target, whose background and family were also deeply researched. Protesters have aired concerns their family members could face reprisals in Iran.

"I just want to step back and say this again: we have here someone living in our country who is being followed, watched, photographed, their home invaded by people at the direction of a foreign power. This is happening in Australia, and this is something ASIO was onto like shot," Ms O'Neil said.
But the home affairs minister stressed Iran is "but one" of the many countries engaged in foreign interference. , and instigating arguments with the "intent of provoking violence", she said.

"To those states who operate in the shadows, I have a simple message: we are watching you," she said.

'Relatively low cost'

Former prime minister Scott Morrison accused China in April of having "form on foreign interference in Australia", though Ms O'Neil's speech did not directly reference China.

Relations between the two countries have thawed since the May 2022 election.

And William Stoltz, policy director at the ANU's National Security College, said singling out Iran may have been an attempt to create a “deterrence effect” for other countries without “ramping up” tensions.

“Iran is a country that Australia can name and shame in a relatively low cost … [it] doesn't come with the same sorts of risks to our economy and other political responses that naming China would, in particular,” he told SBS News.

“It's a way for the Australian government to try to signal and demonstrate a bolder posture for pushing back on foreign interference, but without necessarily doing it in a way that immediately creates more costs for us.”
Two men in suits shaking hands in front of flags.
Relations between Beijing and China have thawed in recent months. Source: Getty / Yan Yan/Xinhua
After her speech, Ms O'Neil was pressed on why she had not named China or Russia.

"What I would really like to do is try to broaden the conversation to reflect the accurate picture, and that is that we are the subject of foreign interference from very many countries. This is not just a China problem, although it is a China problem," she replied.

Dr Stoltz said Iran’s efforts to intimidate the Iranian diaspora overseas had increased during months of protests sparked Ms Amini's death, allegedly at the hands of the country’s religious police.

But he warned outing a perpetrator of foreign interference came with risk, and "may actually amplify" its effect.
"Publicising the fact that they are engaging in this activity could potentially make people in the diaspora community aware of the fact that they might be targeted, when previously they may have felt that they wouldn't have been," he said.

"So there's an extent to which exposing it can actually play into the objective of the operation."

'Kind of difficult'

Ms O’Neil stressed the need for federal security agencies to engage with targeted diasporas.

She said ASIO and the Department of Home Affairs would be asked to develop a new program for people at risk of being targeted for foreign interference, which would help them understand what this looked like and how they could respond.

But Dr Stoltz called for the education of state police, who he said were often the first point of contact for people subjected to intimidation campaigns.

“State police forces need to be able to identify foreign interference, because the reality is that identifying it in the moment can actually be kind of difficult,” he said.
Woman in blue suit stands at a lectern.
Liberal senator Claire Chandler says Australians are entitled to more transparency. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas
“If someone's getting threatening phone calls or being followed, a local police officer may not necessarily be able to distinguish that as an instance of foreign interference, as opposed to any other kind of nefarious behaviour."

Liberal Senator Claire Chandler said the Australian community was entitled to more transparency about the action being taken by the government.

"How can the minister (O'Neil) declare to the Iranian-Australian community that this activity was 'shut down immediately' when in fact Iranian-Australians continue to report harassment and targeting of their families in Iran," she said.
Opposition countering foreign interference spokesman James Paterson urged the government to impose the "strongest possible" response.

"Every Australian is entitled to peacefully protest," he said.

"It is the responsibility of the Albanese government to protect these democratic rights with the strongest possible response to deter this activity and send a clear message to those responsible that it will not be tolerated."

With additional reporting by AAP.

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5 min read
Published 14 February 2023 9:56am
Updated 14 February 2023 5:49pm
By Finn McHugh
Source: AAP



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